Economic Trends (Monthly)

These documents contain timely analysis of current trends in Alberta’s economy, released each month. The “InFocus” section of each issue covers a relevant economic topic in more depth. The Economic Trends is published monthly.

Latest Economic Trends (January 2018)

PDF format  January 2018 Economic Trends (complete report - posted February 1, 2018)

Highlights:

  • The recovery continues to broaden across Alberta’s economy.
  • More balanced job gains are lifting wages and hours worked while net interprovincial migration has turned a corner.
  • Crude oil production is also ramping up to reach record levels and manufacturing sales are getting a boost from higher prices. However, some headwinds remain.
  • Private sector construction spending continues to be weak and transportation bottlenecks have led to a larger discount for Alberta heavy crude oil.
  • This month's inFocus looks at the major factors behind the oil market rebalancing in 2017.


Table: Key indicators

Seasonally adjusted unless otherwise indicated:

Indicator Latest month Value Change year-over-year (y/y)
Alberta Activity Index (y/y growth)
November 2017
+3.7%
+4.3 percentage points
Employment (thousands)
December 2017
2,322
+2.4%
Unemployment rate
December 2017
6.9%
-1.6 percentage points
CPI inflation (unadjusted)
December 2017
2.0%
+1.0 percentage points
Retail sales
November 2017
$6.8 billion
+7.4%
Housing starts (annualized)
December 2017
23,104
-12.0%
Rigs drilling (unadjusted)
December 2017
155
+2.9%
Manufacturing shipments
November 2017
$6.1 billion
+10.4%
Exports (unadjusted)
November 2017
$8.4 billion
+7.4%

Source: Alberta Treasury Board and Finance, Statistics Canada, CAODC, CMHC


Chart: Net interprovincial migration turns a corner as job growth picks up

Alberta net interprovincial migration and employment:
Net interprovincial migration turns a corner as job growth picks up. Source: Statistics Canada.
Source: Statistics Canada


InFocus

PDF format  January 2018 InFocus: Crude oil market rebalancing in 2017 (complete report - posted February 1, 2018)

Highlights:

  • Following the oil price collapse in late 2014 and depressed prices through much of 2015 and 2016, world crude oil markets moved towards rebalancing in 2017.
  • Supply and demand adjustments have resulted in a drawdown in global stocks.
  • This inFocus looks at the major factors driving the oil market rebalancing in 2017. See the complete report for more information.


Chart: World oil market has started to rebalance

World fuels production and consumption balance:
Chart: World oil market has started to rebalance: World fuels production and consumption balance. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

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Economic Trends Archive

These documents were published beginning in 2012.

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Economic Spotlights Archive

These documents were published between 2000 and 2015.

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Page last updated:  February 9, 2018